Thursday, August 28, 2008

gustav

i have been to every site i can find, i find alot of the models are alike, but i am concered about something dr.lyons said this morning on wwl radio. he said one of the most accurate forecast models is the navy model, until it get close to landfall. he said it always takes the storms to the west and almost all the time the build in the high pressures and keep them stronger than the really are. this morning that tracj had gustav going into texas, so a little east would be say morgan city, bad but not as bad as a little fahter east towards new orleans. what concerns me though is since we have had a pretty regular motion now and not as much jogging going on, the navy model takes it almost to the same tack as the NHC. well, if the same holds true and the storms always go east of the navy model, well, you tell me, it puts it in almost puts it in the worst possible spot. a little over that 90 degree line. also, the GWF animated model has stayed real close to the latest viper model you just showed on tonights news. i no we are looking for everything we can to hope for, but man it dont look good to this none trained eye.